There is a particular kind of whiplash in today’s housing market: hearing that buyers have more negotiating power, then opening a mortgage calculator. You can have a better shot at the house and still need a moment after seeing the payment.
The latest news captures that tension. In an October 14 report, Redfin estimated that sellers outnumbered buyers nationally by 62.6% in September, the largest gap in its records dating to 2013. It classified 41 of the 50 most populous metro areas as buyer’s markets. Those are national findings based on Redfin’s estimates of active buyers and listings, rather than a head count of everyone considering a move. [1]
Another report helps explain why a quieter market can still feel expensive. The National Association of REALTORS reported that September’s existing-home sales were down 2.2% from a year earlier, while the number of homes available was up 4.6%, to 1.60 million. Yet the national median sale price rose 1.3%, to $417,500. More inventory and fewer sales did not produce a nationwide price collapse. [2]
Here in the Inland Empire, the picture gets more interesting. The California Association of REALTORS released these September figures on October 19: [3]
| County | Median sale price | Price change from September 2025 | Sales change from September 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Riverside | $620,000 | −0.6% | −12.7% |
| San Bernardino | $531,090 | +6.2% | −6.0% |
Sales declined in both counties, but their median prices moved in different directions. Also, a median reflects the mix of homes that sold; it does not mean every San Bernardino County home gained 6.2% in value. [3]
The timing figures are mixed, too. Riverside County’s median time on market was 42 days, versus 38 a year earlier. San Bernardino County’s was 39 days, versus 43. Their unsold inventory indexes were 4.4 and 5.3 months, respectively—a measure of how long the available supply would take to sell at the current sales pace. [3]
My read: there is a reasonable case for buyers to explore negotiating, but the opportunity needs to be checked against the specific property and its competition. An overpriced listing with several similar homes nearby presents a different conversation from a well-priced home with few substitutes. A countywide headline cannot tell you which one you are standing in.
The mortgage payment helps explain the hesitation. Freddie Mac’s October 22 survey put the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.32%. That was down from 7.40% the previous week, but above the 6.19% average a year earlier. These are national survey averages; an individual borrower’s quote can differ. [4]
For a straightforward illustration, assume a $600,000 purchase, 20% down and a $480,000 mortgage paid over 30 years:
| Illustrative interest rate | Monthly principal and interest |
|---|---|
| 6.19% | About $2,937 |
| 7.32% | About $3,297 |
That is roughly $361 more per month, or $4,300 per year, for the same amount borrowed. A seller might be more open to an offer while the financing remains a serious hurdle. A motivated seller can make the deal better. The numbers still have to work for you.
And principal and interest are only part of the budget. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau includes property taxes, homeowners insurance, applicable mortgage insurance and HOA fees in the total monthly housing payment. It also recommends budgeting separately for maintenance, repairs and utilities. [5]
For an Inland Empire purchase, I would check the property’s actual tax obligations early. Riverside County identifies Mello-Roos charges as separate items on property-tax bills, commonly labeled as Community Facilities District, or CFD, charges. Those costs deserve a place in the comparison alongside the asking price. [6]
I would get an insurance quote for the specific address, too. California’s Department of Insurance explains that its comparison tool uses hypothetical properties; an agent, broker or insurer must confirm a particular home’s eligibility and detailed premium. An online estimate is a starting point, not a finished budget. [7]
For buyers, the useful question is what kind of negotiation would actually help. A lower price reduces the purchase cost. A seller credit toward eligible closing costs can reduce the cash needed at closing. For loans following Fannie Mae’s rules, those contributions have limits and cannot fund the buyer’s down payment. Have the lender compare the options before deciding what to request. [8]
Paying discount points is another option to examine. Points exchange an upfront cost for a lower interest rate; the reduction depends on the lender and loan. The CFPB recommends comparing costs over different possible periods of keeping the mortgage. Ask how long the monthly savings would take to repay the upfront expense. [9]
A temporary buydown needs a separate look because it subsidizes the initial payments without changing the mortgage note’s permanent terms. Fannie Mae requires borrowers on these loans to qualify at the note rate. I would want the payment after the subsidy ends written right next to the introductory payment, in equally large print. [10]
After those comparisons, I would still ask a simple question: would this home be comfortable to own if the payment stayed at its unsubsidized level? A future refinance can be a possibility to revisit. It should not be the thing holding the whole purchase together.
For sellers, I would start with the buyer’s alternatives. Look at recent comparable sales, the homes competing with yours today and what your asking price asks a buyer to take on each month. Then consider whether an adjustment to price, condition or terms would address the obstacle. Buyers can love the kitchen and still leave because the payment does not work.
I would also compare offers by their likely net proceeds and ability to close. A higher price with a large credit may produce less for the seller than a lower price with fewer concessions. That is a calculation worth doing before getting attached to the number at the top of the offer.
The encouraging part of this news is the possibility of a more deliberate conversation: time to compare homes, ask questions and work through terms. Whether that produces a good move depends on the home and the household doing the moving.
My view: explore the opportunity, do the full math and leave some breathing room in the budget. Owning the home should still leave room for the rest of your life—including, occasionally, something more exciting than replacing a water heater.
Thinking about buying or selling in the Inland Empire? Let’s look at your neighborhood, your numbers and what a sensible next move could look like. CallDaniel.org
Sources and calculation notes
- Redfin — Home Sellers Now Outnumber Buyers By 63%. October 14, 2026.
- National Association of REALTORS — September 2026 Existing-Home Sales. October 13, 2026.
- California Association of REALTORS — September 2026 Home Sales and Price Report. October 19, 2026.
- Freddie Mac — Primary Mortgage Market Survey. October 22, 2026.
- Consumer Financial Protection Bureau — Figure out how much you want to spend. Accessed October 23, 2026.
- Riverside County Assessor — Special Assessments. Accessed October 23, 2026.
- California Department of Insurance — Homeowners Insurance Comparison Tool. Accessed October 23, 2026.
- Fannie Mae — Interested Party Contributions. Accessed October 23, 2026.
- Consumer Financial Protection Bureau — How should I use lender credits and points. Accessed October 23, 2026.
- Fannie Mae — Temporary Interest Rate Buydowns. Accessed October 23, 2026.
The county figures describe existing single-family home sales. The national NAR figures include existing single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops. Redfin’s buyer and seller counts are estimates, seasonally adjusted and subject to revision. These measures cover different populations.
Payment calculations use M = P × r ÷ [1 − (1 + r)−n], with P = $480,000, r = annual interest rate ÷ 12 and n = 360. Unrounded principal-and-interest payments are $2,936.74 at 6.19% and $3,297.27 at 7.32%. The annual difference is approximately $4,326. Calculations are illustrative and exclude taxes, insurance, mortgage insurance and HOA fees.